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C00002 00002	TECHNOLOGY FOR IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY
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TECHNOLOGY FOR IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY


Why increase productivity?

	America is the richest  country in the world today,  but from
the  standpoint  of  100  years in  the  future,  it  is  a poor  and
underdeveloped country.  Here are  some of the ways in which  America
is underdeveloped:

	1. Many people work very long hours for low wages.

	2. We  cannot afford  to rebuild  obsolete housing.   Perhaps
100  years from now it will be normal  for a family to buy a location
and scrap the house that happens to be located there  and build a new
one that suits its needs.

	3. Vacations are  much too short.  A person  ought to be able
to do  the work  required to  suppport himself  and his  family in  a
small fraction of his life and use the rest to do what he likes.


What about unemployment and people not knowing  what to do with their
leisure?

	Each  increase in productivity since  early in the nineteenth
century  has  given   rise  to   worries  of  permanently   increased
unemployment.   In  fact,  there  seems to  be  a servo-mechanism  in
society  that adjusts  employment to a  level slightly  less than the
size of the  labor force.  This  mechanism works better than  it used
to  with increased  understanding of  how the  government  can affect
employment, but  it still  doesn't  work well  enough.  Nevertheless,
fluctuations in unemployment as a whole  are rather uncorrelated with
increases  in  productivity,  although  technology  often does  force
people in particular occupations to find other jobs.

	In my  opinion, a  number of  social changes  might ease  the
problem. In the first place, tinkering  with the money supply and the
interest  rate does not allow enough  control over employment without
other  adverse effects  such  as  inflation.   Here  are  some  other
mechanisms that might be used.

	a. Government  purchases and sales of  commodities other than
agricultural.   Hopefully, the  commodities chosen  would be  durable
and non-obsolescing.   It should be organized  in such a way  that no
industry would depend permanently on a government support program.  

	b.  Every job should have  a definite price  depending on the
industry, length  of  service, and  time  till  retirement.   When  a
worker  takes a  job,  he will  know  that his  employer  is free  to
eliminate  the job  at  the given  price. An  industry that  does not
expect to  change  will set  a high  price for  the  job and  workers
interested in security will concentrate there.


OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY

	An  hundred years  ago,  more than  half  the population  was
engaged in agriculture, and now the percentage is about five.  
This increase in productivity has permitted most of the population
to switch to other activities.